Trump would beat DeSantis in 2024, Biden approval rate underwater

Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speak at midterm election rallies in Dayton, Ohio, U.S., on November 7, 2022, and in Tampa, Florida, U.S. on November 8, 2022 , photo portfolio.

Galen Morse | Reuters

Former President Donald Trump will beat Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by a wide margin in the hypothetical 2024 Republican presidential primary, a new poll shows.

According to the Emerson College poll, Trump has the support of 55 percent of registered Republican voters, compared with just 25 percent for his potential rival for the White House nomination, DeSantis.

The survey was conducted last week when Trump announced he would run for the White House in 2024.

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On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden has just 39 percent approval, while 53 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing, the Emerson poll found.

That’s the same number Biden had been counting in a previous Emerson National Poll conducted shortly before the November midterm elections.

In a potential rematch of the 2020 election in 2024, the poll found, Biden would beat Trump 45% to 41%.

Polls show that if DeSantis becomes the Republican nominee in 2024, he will lose to Biden by the same margin, with the Democratic incumbent receiving 43% of the vote compared with 39% for governors.

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Democrats who responded to the poll overwhelmingly chose Biden over Vice President Kamala Harris when asked their preference for the party’s nominee for 2024. A total of 42% of Democrats want Biden as the nominee, compared with just 17% who support Harris and 12% who support Vermont independent Senator Bernie Sanders.

The Emerson poll found a significant education divide among Republican primary voters, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Poll.

Voters with a high school education or less supported Trump 71 percent of the time. Voters with a college degree, part of college or an associate’s degree back him 53 percent.

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Republican voters with graduate degrees had the lowest approval rating for Trump at 32 percent.

The poll found that the economy was the most important issue facing Democratic and Republican voters, followed by “threats to democracy,” immigration, abortion, health care and crime, respectively.

Additionally, 52% of voters believe Congress should continue to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot, which disrupted Biden’s certification of an Electoral College victory by a group of Trump supporters.

Another 39 percent said Congress should drop the inquiry.

The survey was conducted Nov. 18-19 out of a sample of 1,380 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.


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